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Making Decisions

The expensive part of a decision is rarely the decision. It is the five weeks you spent not making it, while everything behind it stopped moving.

The expensive part of a decision is rarely the decision. It is the five weeks you spent not making it, during which the problem carried on costing money and everything queued behind it stopped moving.

Most of what an owner decides can be undone. Treat those decisions as if they cannot be, and you will be slow at everything — including the handful that genuinely deserve the time.

What does the model say?

Jeff Bezos put this well in a letter to Amazon shareholders. Some decisions are one-way doors: walk through and you cannot come back, or coming back costs more than you can stomach. Most decisions are two-way doors. You walk through, look around, and if it is wrong you walk back out and try something else.

The test is not how important the decision feels. It is a single question: if this turns out to be wrong, what does it cost to reverse, and how long does that take? Under three months and an amount you would not lose sleep over, it is a two-way door.

Genuine one-way doors are rarer than most owners think. A long lease. Taking investment or a business partner. Selling equity. A redundancy. A capital purchase with no second-hand market. Losing your reputation with a key client. Almost everything else — most hires, most systems, most marketing — is reversible if you notice quickly enough.

Why is the confusion so expensive?

Owners routinely run one-way process on two-way decisions. A week of thinking, three colleagues asked, a comparison spreadsheet, a night to sleep on it — for a decision they could unwind in a fortnight for a few hundred pounds.

The direct cost is bad enough. The indirect cost is worse, because everything behind that decision stops. Your team learns that things take a while to come back from you, so they stop bringing them, so they either guess or wait. That is how an owner becomes the bottleneck without ever meaning to.

And here is the uncomfortable half of the pattern. The same owner will sign a five-year lease in an afternoon because the agent mentioned another interested party. The genuine one-way doors are the ones taken fastest, usually under time pressure created by somebody with an interest in the answer.

A worked example

Illustrative figures. An owner is comparing scheduling systems at about £480 a month. It takes five weeks: three demos, a comparison sheet, opinions from four people, and a trial nobody had time to run properly.

Do the arithmetic on being wrong. Pick the poorer system, run it three months, admit it and switch: roughly £1,440 of subscription plus perhaps twenty hours of setup wasted. Call it under £3,000 — entirely survivable.

Now do the arithmetic on the delay. The thing the system was meant to fix is costing about six hours a week of manual work. Five weeks is thirty hours gone, and behind that decision sit four others that did not move because the owner’s attention was here. The delay costs more than the mistake would have — and that is before counting five weeks of thinking about it in the car.

The same owner, that year, signed a five-year lease inside a single afternoon: a total commitment well into six figures with no break clause. Figures illustrative, but the shape of that year is extremely common. Care is not in short supply in most businesses. It is simply pointed at the wrong doors.

Who should be making it?

Reversibility also tells you whose decision it is. Two-way doors below a sensible value should not reach you at all. If your operations manager cannot choose a supplier, a rota or a piece of software without checking, you have not hired a manager, you have hired a very expensive relay.

Set the boundary by cost of reversal rather than by cost of purchase, because those are different numbers. A £4,000 piece of equipment you can sell on is a smaller commitment than an £800 contract with a two-year term. Most owners set spending limits and never think about lock-in, which is the thing that actually hurts.

Then hold the line when it goes wrong, and it will. The first time somebody uses their authority and gets it wrong, what you do next decides whether anyone uses it again. Ask what they would do differently, agree the fix, leave the authority where it is. Pull it back once and every decision returns to your desk within a fortnight, permanently.

How to use this in the next week

  1. Label the door before you start. First question, every time: one-way or two-way? Ten seconds of labelling saves days of unnecessary process.
  2. Put a decision date on it the moment it arrives. Not a deadline for the outcome — a date by which the decision is made. Two-way doors get days, not weeks.
  3. Decide at about seventy per cent of the information. On a reversible decision the last thirty per cent costs more to gather than the mistake would, and you will learn more in a fortnight of doing than in a fortnight of asking.
  4. Give the two-way doors away with a boundary. “Anything reversible under £2,000, decide it and tell me afterwards.” That single sentence removes more from an owner’s week than any productivity system.
  5. For one-way doors, run a pre-mortem. Write the sentence “it is eighteen months on and this was a disaster — here is why”, then take counsel from someone with nothing to gain from your answer, which rules out most of the people currently advising you.
  6. Keep a one-page decision log. Date, decision, what you expected, what actually happened. Three months of this tells you whether you are habitually too slow, too fast, or wrong in a particular direction.

The mistake most owners make

They believe their slowness is rigour. It is usually discomfort. A reversible decision left open feels safer than a reversible decision made badly, and it is not — the open decision costs you every day, while a bad one gets corrected in three weeks.

The second mistake is confusing deciding with announcing. Owners often decide in April, tell nobody until July, then wonder why nothing has moved. A decision nobody has been told about has not been made.

The third is judging a decision by its outcome. Sometimes a good decision produces a bad result, because the world does not co-operate. Punish yourself, or your managers, for outcomes rather than for the quality of the reasoning at the time, and everyone around you learns to make the safest possible choices — and safe choices compound into a business that never goes anywhere.

Questions to ask yourself

Speed on the reversible decisions is what buys you the time and the credibility to be genuinely careful with the few that deserve it. That habit is Personal Coaching work, because the delay is almost never an information problem.

Where this goes next

Where this goes next.

Speed comes from two things: knowing where you are going, and having given the small decisions away properly.

Coaching

Personal Coaching

How you decide — and how quickly — is a personal habit before it is a business system. Personal Coaching works on the discomfort underneath the delay.

Explore Personal Coaching
Mindset

Man on the Moon

A destination with a number and a date attached, so that hundreds of small decisions answer themselves in seconds.

Read the mindset
Mindset

The Leadership Quadrants

Once you know which decisions are reversible, the quadrants tell you how to hand them over without them bouncing back.

Read the mindset

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Common questions

How do I tell a one-way door from a two-way door?

Ask one question, and it is not how important the decision feels. If this turns out to be wrong, what does it cost to reverse and how long does that take? Under three months and an amount you would not lose sleep over, it is a two-way door — walk through it, look around, and walk back out if you were wrong. Genuine one-way doors are rarer than most owners think: a long lease, taking investment or a business partner, selling equity, a redundancy, a capital purchase with no second-hand market, losing your reputation with a key client. Almost everything else, including most hires, most systems and most marketing, is reversible if you notice quickly enough.

Doesn’t deciding at seventy per cent of the information mean being reckless?

Only if you apply it to the wrong doors. On a reversible decision the last thirty per cent of the information usually costs more to gather than the mistake would, and you will learn more in a fortnight of doing than in a fortnight of asking. On a one-way door the opposite holds — take the time, run a pre-mortem, and get counsel from someone with nothing to gain from your answer. The discipline is not speed for its own sake. It is spending your care where reversal is impossible and refusing to spend it where reversal costs a few hundred pounds and a fortnight.

What should I do when someone I gave authority to gets a decision wrong?

Hold the line, because what you do next decides whether anyone uses their authority again. Ask what they would do differently, agree the fix, and leave the authority exactly where it is. Pull it back once and every decision returns to your desk within a fortnight, permanently — and you will have taught the whole team that delegated authority is conditional on never being wrong, which no one will accept. Judge the reasoning rather than the outcome, too. Sometimes a good decision produces a bad result because the world did not co-operate, and punishing that trains everybody around you to make the safest possible choices.

Stop carrying open decisions around — start with a conversation.

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